NFL Football Wagering

25/01/08

Patriots-Giants wagers could top state record

By MATT YOUMANS

REVIEW-JOURNAL

Jan. 21, 2008

With the unbeaten New England Patriots and glamour-boy quarterback Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, the stage is set for potential record-breaking betting numbers.

The Patriots improved to 18-0 on Sunday, and their continued pursuit of NFL history is sure to result in big business for Las Vegas sports books.

As expected, New England is a heavy favorite to win Super Bowl XLII on Feb. 3 at Glendale, Ariz. But in a surprising twist to the script, the New York Giants will be playing the Cinderella role.

The Patriots were posted as 131/2-point favorites over the Giants when the opening line for the Super Bowl went up Sunday night.

"I have every reason to believe this Super Bowl will be one of the biggest ever, if not the biggest one ever," MGM Mirage sports book director Robert Walker said.

MGM Mirage books opened New England as a 13-point favorite, while Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out 14 as the suggested line. The consensus number settled at 131/2. The total is 54.

With two weeks of hype to follow, the wagering handle in Nevada could reach $100 million for the first time.

"I'm very confident this is going to be a record-setting Super Bowl," Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said. "People are very intrigued by the Patriots' perfection and their run at history."

The state's record handle for a Super Bowl is $94.5 million, set two years ago when the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Seattle Seahawks.

A total of $93 million was wagered on last year's Super Bowl, when Peyton Manning led the Indianapolis Colts to a 29-17 victory over Chicago Bears. The Colts were 7-point favorites the total was 47.

Eli Manning led the Giants to a 23-20 overtime victory over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. The Giants closed as 8-point underdogs and the score went over the total of 41.

Brady did not have one of his best days in the AFC Championship Game, throwing three interceptions, but the Patriots were good enough to grind out a 21-12 victory over the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers covered as 14-point underdogs and the score went under the total of 48.

New England is 2-8 against the spread after starting the season 8-0.

One of the Patriots' point-spread losses came in Week 17, when they needed a fourth-quarter comeback to defeat the Giants 38-35 at New York. In that game, New England was a 13-point favorite and the total was 461/2.

The Giants' upset of the Packers spoiled the best-case scenario for the sports books. A Super Bowl pitting Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre against the Patriots likely would have produced the biggest wagering numbers.

But there was no complaining about a New England-New York Giants rematch.

"I think for people handicapping this game, you can't bet the Patriots blindly," Walker said. "They have been doing enough to win, and that's it. I think it has caused a few people to pause a little bit.

"I don't know what more we can ask for, and I would think the public will be really excited. I'm just glad the Patriots got there. I didn't think the Chargers and the Giants would be the most attractive matchup."

Sports books on the Strip were crowded with football bettors Sunday, and Kornegay and Walker reported brisk business. Walker characterized the AFC game as "kind of a yawner."

The NFC game, played in Green Bay at sub-zero temperatures, had one of the season's most dramatic finishes.

After Favre threw an interception on the first series of overtime, New York's Lawrence Tynes kicked a winning 47-yard field goal. Tynes had missed a 36-yard kick at the end of regulation.

The betting majority was on the Packers, who were posted as minus-180 favorites on the overtime line. The Giants extended their road winning streak to 10 games.

Kornegay said the Hilton plans to post about 300 proposition bets on the Super Bowl by Tuesday night.

New England, in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in seven years, is about a minus-500 favorite on the money line to defeat New York. Support for the underdog is anticipated.

"The books are going to need the Patriots to win the game but not cover the point spread," Kornegay said. "The Patriots haters will come out to bet the Giants on the money line. It's a love-hate relationship with the Patriots."

05/01/08

Jeff Haney on Kansas' advantage over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl and why Ohio State's a good bet in the top game

December 28, 2007

In his analysis of Thursday's Orange Bowl matchup between Kansas and Virginia Tech, Las Vegas sports handicapper Joe D'Amico gives an edge to the Jayhawks - emotionally as well as fundamentally.

First, the intangibles: Kansas lost to rival Missouri in its final regular-season game, but ended up beating out the Tigers for a Bowl Championship Series berth. The Jayhawks figure to be motivated to prove they deserve their billing ahead of Missouri, which lost twice to Oklahoma this season and settled for a Cotton Bowl appearance.

Kansas also drew criticism for a weak regular-season schedule, despite finishing 11-1 straight up and 10-1 against the point spread - the best performance in college football against the betting number.

It's the fundamental angles, though, that make Kansas one of D'Amico's two best bets on the college bowl slate. The Jayhawks are a 3 ¯1/2-point underdog against Virginia Tech in Miami (5 p.m. Thursday, Fox, Cox cable Channel 5).

At first glance, the Orange Bowl looks like a clash of offense and defense. Kansas scored an average of 44.3 points a game, second behind Hawaii in the NCAA. Tech (11-2 straight up, 7-5 against the spread), traditionally a defense-oriented unit under coach Frank Beamer, allowed 15.5 points a game, second behind Ohio State.

Yet Kansas also brings the No. 5-ranked defense into the game, allowing an average of 16 points, arguably against a softer lineup of opponents.

Kansas' quarterback, Todd Reesing, who passed for a school-record 32 touchdowns, and its rushing attack, led by Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp (a combined 1,838 yards and 23 touchdowns), should give Tech as much as it can handle, D'Amico said.

"Virginia Tech has a dual quarterback thing going (Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor), and I give Kansas a big advantage there," D'Amico said. "Because of Virginia Tech's defense, it will be a tough game, and they'll keep it close. In a game like that, give me the 3 and the hook (half-point)."

D'Amico also likes the underdog in the BCS championship game (5 p.m. Jan. 7, Fox), recommending a play on Ohio State plus 4 ¯1/2 points against LSU in New Orleans.

The Buckeyes (11-1 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) face another Southeastern Conference team after losing to Florida 41-14 as a 7-point favorite in last year's title game.

LSU (11-2 straight up, 5-7-1 against the spread) scored an average of 38.7 points a game behind a two-quarterback system featuring Matt Flynn (2,233 yards, 17 touchdowns) and Ryan Perrilloux (694 yards, eight touchdowns). They'll face a top-ranked Ohio State defense (10.7 points a game) that held seven opponents to single digits in scoring.

"LSU is very quick," D'Amico said. "They remind me a little bit of last year's Florida team. But that two-quarterback offense will find it hard to get into a rhythm. That will work against them, and Ohio State will be rested, healthy and hungry."

D'Amico (online at allamericansports.info) has been contributing football picks to the Sun periodically this season, compiling a record of 14-9 (61 percent) against the point spread.

Contest final

Las Vegas native Nick Bogdanovich faces Doc Moseman of Sauk City, Wis., in today's championship match in the Leroy's sports books "Money Talks" football handicapping invitational.

The final, with the contest's winner-take-all $160,000 prize at stake, takes place from 7 to 9 ¯p.m. at the Riviera (KSFN 1140-AM).

Bogdanovich, a former sports book director at several Las Vegas casinos who recently accepted a similar position with Reno-based Club Cal Neva, has compiled a record of 14-12-2 against the point spread in the single-elimination tournament. He advanced past Stephen Nover, Wayne Peters, Marc Lawrence and Jorge Gonzalez.

Moseman, operator of a sports handicapping service for 35 years, is 22-13 against the spread including a tiebreaker week. He beat Jeff Whitelaw, Bill Edler, Adam Meyer and Paul Sonner.

Each of the 32 entrants put up $5,000 to compete, making the Leroy's event the largest contest of its kind in Nevada.

Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at haney@lasvegassun.com.

18/12/07

Vick got what he deserved

Published on Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Justice prevailed over notoriety in the case of Michael Vick when a federal judge sacked the former National Football League quarterback by sentencing him to a longer prison term than his partners in an illegal dogfighting operation.

Why? Because he lied about his involvement when he was supposed to be coming clean to the judge who would decide his fate. The lies just worsened the fact that he was involved in such a despicable crime in the first place.

Vick will serve up to 23 months. Two co-defendants were sentenced Nov. 30: One got 18 months, another got 21 months. A third co-defendant will be sentenced Friday.

Seeing Vick get the same kind of sentence that an "average guy" would get for this kind of deplorable cruelty to animals is heartening. The fame surrounding one of the NFL's most talented quarterbacks got him nothing but a lot of extra attention as he faced the music in federal court.

The Associated Press reported that despite the early surrender, a public apology and participation in an animal sensitivity training course, Vick was even denied an "acceptance of responsibility" credit that would have reduced his sentence. Federal prosecutors opposed awarding Vick the credit because he had been more directly involved in the dogfighting operation than he admitted.

"He did more than fund it," prosecutor Michael Gill said, referring to the Bad Newz Kennels dogfighting operation. "He was in this thing up to his neck with the other defendants."

Training animals to rip each other apart in a ring for "sport" and wagering is bad enough, but the uproar in the Vick case was magnified with revelations that dogs not performing up to expectations were killed by electrocution, hanging, drowning and other violent means by members of the dogfighting ring -- including Vick.

Vick will also be hit where it hurts most -- his bank account.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution estimates that he has incurred financial losses of $142 million, including $71 million in Falcons salary, $50 million in endorsement income and nearly $20 million in previously paid bonuses.

Now there's speculation about whether he will return to NFL play after he serves his time. If he misses three full seasons, he would only be 30 entering the 2010 season.

His future in football could depend on whether NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell reconsiders and lifts Vick's indefinite suspension from the league. Even if he serves his time and technically has paid his debt to society, allowing him back into the league would be a major mistake in our view.

The NFL has enough image problems now because of a few bad-apple players and their lack of common sense and good judgment. The league should in no way sanction what Vick has done, even indirectly, by allowing him to return.

Former players have been handed lifetime bans from sports for less.

Michael Vick was living a dream most young people will never have a chance to experience -- rich, famous and at the top of his game.

He threw it all away for an illegal, vicious dogfighting ring.

He gets no sympathy in this corner. He deserves all that he gets for that criminal behavior -- and the lies he told in an attempt to cover it up.

* Members of the Yakima Herald-Republic editorial board are Michael Shepard, Sarah Jenkins and Bill Lee.

10/12/07

Thanksgiving Football Wagering Has Vastly Different Point Spreads

For gamblers looking to wager on the NFL on Thanksgiving, there could not be a more different approach then the one that will be taken on these three games.

Two of the three games have point spreads over ten points, meaning that people will be laying over two scores in both games if they play the favorite.

The Cowboys and Packers are clearly the two best team in the NFC, and although it would have been nice to see them play on Thanksgiving, the country will have to wait a week for that match up.

Dallas is a two touchdown favorite over the Jets, but they must beware of overlooking a team that is coming off a surprising win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.

In Detroit, the Lions will be trying to save their division hopes when they host the Green Bay Packers. The Pack are 3.5 point road favorites.

In the night game, the new addition to Thanksgiving football over the past few years, the Indianapolis Colts will travel to play the dreadful Atlanta Falcons.

The Colts are favored by 11.5, a high number considering that Indianapolis has struggled on offense since Marvin Harrison has been injured.

Posted By Vincent Tapoglia III
Staff Editor, CasinoGamblingWeb.com

04/11/07

Unexpected is expected in NFL's big one

Jerry Magee

UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

November 4, 2007

INDIANAPOLIS - Somebody other than Tom Brady or Peyton Manning is apt to turn into the big guy today in the biggest of NFL games. It's how football often plays out.
Try Wes Welker.

He is the New England Patriots' leading receiver with 56 receptions, 35 for first downs and six for touchdowns, a 5-foot-9, 190-pounder who has neither size nor sprinter speed. What he has, which he first underscored during his brief time with the Chargers - too brief, it could be argued - is spunk.

One can remember a preseason game the Chargers played in the summer of 2004 against the Indianapolis Colts, the same team Welker will be operating against today under the RCA Dome. The Colts put up seven punts. Welker did not fair catch any of 'em. He had been signed by the Chargers as an undrafted rookie out of Texas Tech and Welker understood that for an undrafted rookie, doing merely the ordinary would not be sufficient.

"Exactly," Welker said at the time.

What Welker did was not enough to persuade Marty Schottenheimer to retain him. The Chargers cut Welker, who would catch on with the Miami Dolphins and serve three seasons in Florida with just one touchdown. It was left for the Patriots to exercise their genius in personnel matters, dealing a second-round draft selection to Miami for Welker and finding in him a receiver whose maneuvers from the slot complement what Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth do on the outside.

Welker comes into this one with 29 receptions in his last three appearances. He had 11 for 124 yards against the Dallas Cowboys, nine for 138 against the Dolphins and nine for 89 against the Washington Redskins.

Once, he could have been had for the $100 waiver fee. In last year's AFC Championship Game at this site, the leading figure in what became a 38-34 triumph for the Colts was Indianapolis running back Joseph Addai, then a rookie, not Brady or Manning.

What unsung athlete could come forward today?

Welker's name comes up and so do the names of Patriots running back Laurence Maroney, Colts tight end Dallas Clark, Patriots corner defender Asante Samuel and Colts cornerback Marlin Jackson, whose interception of Brady sealed Indianapolis' victory in last season's AFC title match.

Indianapolis, meantime, has its motor running for this one - and it doesn't involve race cars. On Friday, the Colts held what was termed a "Blue Friday" rally downtown, and the crowd filled the plaza where it was offered. If you don't have a ticket and you want to come, bring money. In its classified section yesterday, the Indianapolis Star published one notice offering two seats behind the New England bench. Price: $7,500 each.

In Las Vegas, the Patriots are 5 1/2 -point favorites at most wagering venues, although John Harper of Las Vegas Sports Consultants said some shops have New England as a 6-point favorite. "People are taking the 6," said Harper. "It's not going to go to 7."

Harper said he cannot remember a regular-season NFL game comparable to this one. Never before have teams progressed this deeply into the season with perfect records, the Patriots 8-0, the Colts 7-0, then gotten together.

"And then there are the two quarterbacks," noted Harper. Brady, with 30 TD passes and just two interceptions, is the first quarterback to put up at least 34 points in eight consecutive games. That he will eclipse Manning's record 49 scoring passes in a season, established in 2004, is almost a certainty. Brady also would seem destined to become the first quarterback to escort an NFL team to 600 points in a season.

Manning has a Super Bowl ring (Brady has three), a reward for the Colts' 29-17 conquest of Chicago in Super Bowl XLI. Whether Manning will have Marvin Harrison among his receivers today is uncertain. Harrison has a knee injury that has limited his preparation.

29/10/07

NFL building bridge to Europe, starting in London

By Jeffrey Stinson, USA TODAY

LONDON - Are the Brits ready for some football - big-league, American football?

The NFL seeks to answer that Sunday when the Miami Dolphins play the New York Giants in London's sold-out Wembley Stadium, which bills itself as the "home of English football."

This is the first time the NFL has offered a regular-season game outside of the Americas. It's a tryout of a long-term strategy to market the high-flying and hard-hitting U.S. sport overseas, where "football" means soccer and fans are ecstatic over scores of 1-nil or ties.

If Sunday is a success, says Mark Waller, the NFL's senior vice president for marketing and sales, up to two regular-season games could be played next year outside the USA, in Britain, Germany, Mexico or Canada.

"We've talked to fans around the world," Waller says. "They told us they love our game. They love the electricity. But what they really wanted to see ... were the games that really count."

The league picked the Dolphins and Giants because they rank Nos. 2 and 8, respectively, in popularity on the NFL's British website. The undefeated New England Patriots are No. 1.

The first 40,000 tickets, priced between $90-$180, were gone in 90 minutes, and the game became a sellout of 86,000. Tickets available on websites or via brokers this week range mostly from $90 to $300, though asking prices for club seats were about $500 and the highest price of any ticket approaches $1,500.

All week the league has been trying to whip up enthusiasm in what Gareth Davies, marketing director for the NFL in London, says is a level of hoopla somewhere "between a regular-season game and the Super Bowl."

Monday, for instance, the league entertained tens of thousands of gawkers at famed Trafalgar Square with a 26-foot-tall animatronic version of Dolphins defensive end Jason Taylor.

Tuesday, shivering Dolphins cheerleaders performed in 40-something-degree shade at Canary Wharf, London's financial center. At the Chelsea soccer clubhouse, stars John Terry and Didier Drogba shed shorts and shin guards for full Giants and Dolphins gear to be photographed as honorary captains.

Wednesday, former Dolphins Bob Brudzinski, Shawn Wooden, Nat Moore and Twan Russell were teaching at various coaching clinics in the London area.

New Wembley Stadium, which opened in May as a 90,000-seat replacement for old Wembley, has been transformed to make it as close to an NFL stadium and game experience as possible. Seats near the soccer pitch, or field, were taken out so fans will have better sight lines and to allow for advertising. A tailgate area has been arranged for up to 10,000 fans.

Dolphins cheerleader Ireivy Guerra, 23, says she and her colleagues have added dance routines for the game but "no singing." British soccer fans will sing, often with profane lyrics aimed at their opponents, throughout games. "We want the fans to see what a game is like in Miami," she says.

The goal, Waller says, is to give British fans "our best product line - a regular-season game."

Making adjustments

Waller foresees all 32 NFL teams playing a game a year outside North America. Even the Super Bowl could go overseas, which NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell last week suggested could include London. Waller also hopes a team is based on foreign soil by 2020. That's why Sunday's game means so much, posing a two-pronged test of the NFL's global ambitions:

-How do the players perform after arriving Friday morning on red-eye flights for a kickoff at 5 p.m. local time and 1 p.m. East Coast time Sunday?

-Can the Brits get sufficiently excited by the American game to warrant continuing the experiment?

All signs indicate the first test might be easier to pass than the second. The game isn't breaking past news of Champions League soccer into the sports pages of London's national newspapers - although The Times on Wednesday did feature a photo of the Dolphins cheerleaders on page 8 of its sports section, with a story on the loss of Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown (torn knee ligaments) for the season.

Both teams say they have planned for the London trip since it was announced in the spring and prepared as normally this week as they would for a road game.

"The No. 1 priority is obviously preparing as well as we can and trying to win a football game, period," Giants coach Tom Coughlin said Tuesday.

He could have been reading from Dolphins coach Cam Cameron's script. "We're going over there to win a football game, plain and simple," Cameron said Monday.

Of the trans-Atlantic travel, Dolphins spokesman Harvey Greene says it isn't much different from flying to Seattle to play the Seahawks. Both teams have bye weeks after this game.

Possible distractions, such as a visit to Big Ben or St. Paul's Cathedral? Giants quarterback Eli Manning says no: "I don't have any plans to do any sightseeing. I think you need to treat it like an away game."

The stakes are higher for the 5-2 Giants, who have won five in a row and trail first-place Dallas by a game in the NFC East. The 0-7 Dolphins have been riddled with injuries and seek a win anywhere.

Getting a foothold

But to the NFL brass, this is no ordinary away game. Goodell said Thursday that although the NFL is the No. 1 sport in the USA, it must expand beyond America's borders to be successful in the future.

"The future of our sport will depend on our ability to globalize," he said. "Our goal is to translate America's obsession to world passion. This Sunday is just the beginning."

The Dolphins, who lose one of their eight home games by agreeing to play here, acknowledge the move upset some fans and probably will cost them money. "Would you do this for financial reasons? No," club President Bryan Wiedmeier says. "We do it for the commissioner and his vision."

The London game follows two decades of struggle by the league to build an enduring fan base to attend American-style football games on this side of the Atlantic. The league has had exhibition games and installed developmental teams composed of players who hoped to break into the NFL on teams in European cities.

Despite the wide availability of NFL games on TV, with subscription-based Sky Sports offering 125 live this season, the league hasn't taken off over here as much as it wanted. The NFL even decided this year to pull the plug on its European league. Hence, Sunday's test.

Nick Halling, a game announcer for Sky Sports who has covered the NFL and its European leagues for 25 years, is delighted by Sunday's game. He says it is a logical step for the NFL if it wants a global reach.

London, he says, is the best choice to kick off the new strategy, although Germany has had more and longer-lasting teams in the NFL's European leagues.

"In this country, there is a solid (base) of American football fans," Halling says. "They are quite sophisticated. Germany attracts fans to games, but for them it's more of an excuse to have a fun night out."

Exactly how many of these fans are Britons enamored with the game is difficult to determine, just as it's difficult to tell whether Britain's sports-crazy public will embrace the NFL. Wembley is advising fans to "please come dressed in your Dolphins, Giants or other NFL gear to show your true colors." There will also be 31 booths inside and outside Wembley Stadium selling hats, jerseys and other NFL merchandise.

Bryan Tyrell, catering director of Bodean's, a Kansas City-style barbecue restaurant with four branches here, says during a typical week during an NFL season most of his customers are British. On weekends, when college and NFL games are on the restaurants' TV sets, it's mostly Americans, he says.

Ladbrokes, Britain's largest bookmaker, says wagering on NFL games is on the rise because of the games seen on Sky Sports, which doesn't reveal its viewership tally.

Nick Weinberg, a Ladbrokes spokesman, says interest in Sunday's game is up by 10%-15% over Sunday games being played in the USA. Even then, he says, wagering on the NFL is barely a fifth of what Britons bet on Premier League soccer matches.

Many British sports fans are like Paul Rossiter, 28, a bartender at The Sports Cafe near Trafalgar Square. He has seen several NFL games on trips to the USA, where he's traveled to 38 states and lived for a while in Texas and in Massachusetts, where he became a Patriots fan. Although he can't get to Sunday's game, he says, "I know I'll be here watching" on one of the sports bar's 120 TV sets, many expected to be tuned to the game at the request of American students and expatriates.

But for the NFL to build enthusiasm, they must win over British sports enthusiasts such as Darren Hampton, 40, a Londoner who works security at Canary Wharf. He turned out Tuesday to see the Jason Taylor robot and, especially, the Dolphins cheerleaders.

"I haven't watched (the NFL) for a long, long time," says Hampton, who was sporting a Dolphins sticker on his jacket, which covered an England soccer shirt. "I'll probably watch this game (on TV) since it's here. American football is the only American sport I can watch.

"But I prefer 'real football.' "

16/10/07

Jerry Magee's NFL picks

UNION-TRIBUNE

October 12, 2007

Teams listed first are selected to cover the wagering lines. Home teams are in caps:

Raiders (plus 10) vs. CHARGERS: As ably as the East Bay team can play defense, the number is excessive.

Bengals (plus 2 1/2) vs. CHIEFS: Give the Ohioans pronounced advantages at quarterback and on the outside.

JAGUARS (minus 7) vs. Texans: No team is playing better defense than Jacksonville, which in four games has given up 41 points.

Dolphins (plus 5) vs. BROWNS: Miami plays those FG games. Prefer taking the 5, which here seems like a bunch.

BEARS (minus 5) vs. Vikings: With Rex Grossman out of there, Chicago no longer is giving away the football as it was.

Eagles (minus 3) vs. JETS: Not fond of either of these groups. Particularly leery of the Jets if they go with Kellen Clemens at quarterback.

Rams (plus 9 1/2) vs. RAVENS: Baltimore has not covered this season and it is going to get there giving up 9 1/2? C'mon.

Titans (plus 2 1/2) vs. BUCS: Something we keep saying: Tennessee is a covering machine, having gone 13-2 against the numbers.

Redskins (plus 4 1/2) vs. PACKERS: The four first-round picks in the Redskins' secondary can make matters trying for Brett Favre.

Panthers (plus 4) vs. CARDINALS: Wherein Kurt Warner learns that starting and showing up to run the no-huddle are different things.

Patriots (minus 5) vs. COWBOYS: The difference is at quarterback: Tom Brady rock-solid, Tony Romo given to being erratic.

Saints (plus 6 1/2) vs. SEAHAWKS: This is the one the television audience gets on Sunday night. Not that alluring, is it?

Monday

FALCONS (plus 3 1/2) vs. Giants: Underdogs playing at home have a way of giving it that little bit extra on "Monday Night Football."

Last week: 6-8. Season: 35-37-4.